Many experts, like Timothy Geithner, the former head of treasury in Washington DC, or Mervin King, the former head of the Bank of England, and others, expect that the next financial crisis is coming. The question only is: when, and what will trigger it. The head of Berenberg Bank recently was quoted by saying that he and his experts believe it to be coming in autumn 2019. What could be the trigger: the crisis between North Korea and the US? An increase of interest rates, which would make debt servicing for many companies and governments more difficult (because they have taken loans based on very low interest rates)? Or China, which has very high levels of debt? Or a decrease of trust regarding the high expectations of future results of tech companies? Nobody knows. But more and more voices every day in the newspapers say that the rally of the stock markets has been long now and we have reached a very high level since the last crisis, meaning they expect that this is not going on forever. Another question is whether governments will be able to contain it, when it comes. Some authors suggest that in case of the next financial crisis the system will be freezed immediately in order to avoid a crash and cash machines will allow only limited cash withdrawals per person. Will governments need some of our money to save institutions which are too big to fail? Anyway, this is why I would advise any company and initiative to build up a strong equity and cash position to be able to stay in business during difficult times. Banks normally require at least 30% equity of balance total. I would advise to go to 60% and more. Also it is important to have good local and regional business relationships which are stable and trustful to hold through a difficult period. Why only local and regional? Because I believe in personal relationships. And those are easier to build and keep alive when we can meet in person relatively easy. Of course this is also possible over long distances, but it needs a different kind of attention. If we look at the many small and medium sized sustainable and ethical, or green, local and regional initiatives in farming, food production, food systems, trade, craft, technology, service, arts and culture, education, civil society, and many others, they all can contribute through good cooperation to a resilience necessary in times of crisis.

Share This